Friday, September 25, 2009

Earth Matters: De-escalate


What? No missile shield in Eastern Europe to protect us from the nukes they’ll be lobbing at us? Katie, bar the door.

I spent considerable youthful time worrying that living at ground zero in Colorado Springs I’d be instantly vaporized in an air blast that would level most of the Front Range. Now peace-monger Obama wants to open the door to any crazy militant that can package up plutonium and launch it our way. I’d probably best get back to building my air-raid shelter; call me paranoid.

While the nuclear threat from Russia is probably less than it was when I was a kid in the 1950s, nuclear proliferation in countries like Iran, Pakistan and North Korea is still scary. George W. Bush’s way of coping with the threat was to install a missile defense system in former Soviet Bloc countries Poland and Czech Republic. Obama has scrapped that plan.

Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Vladimir Popovkin lauded Obama’s cancellation of the missile defense plan as a “victory of reason over ambitions. Naturally, we will cancel countermeasures which Russia has planned in response,” Popovkin said. One such countermeasure was deployment of Iskander missiles along Russia’s border. I feel safer already.

Although Russia was the most outspoken opponent of the proposed missile defense shield, the plan was designed to address threats from rogue states like Iran and North Korea. Russia simply didn’t like the idea of the United States setting up missiles and radar in its former satellite countries and right on its border.

Obama’s intelligence, hopefully better than Bush’s, suggests that Iran isn’t as close as we thought to acquiring nuclear attack capability. Instead of irritating the Russians, Obama’s defense strategy would use radar in Alaska and California to detect launches, and respond with forty-four interceptor missiles in Alaska and California, and another 130 based on ships.

In return for us backing off the defense system in Eastern Europe, we hope Russia will join the United States in castigating Iran into backing off its nuclear program. It will be a while before Iranian nukes could touch the U.S. homeland, but Iran’s Shahab-3 missiles have a range of 1,240 miles. That’s enough carrying power to reach Israel, or NATO countries Greece, Bulgaria or Romania…or for that matter, Russia.

Obama’s de-escalation, if it can be called that, was not welcomed in Central and Eastern Europe. Former Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek said, “This is not good news for the Czech state, for Czech freedom and independence. It puts us in a position where we are not firmly anchored in terms of partnership, security and alliance, and that’s a certain threat.” Oh, well; Obama’s Republican foes didn’t like the move either.

Although Obama’s new “smarter, stronger and swifter” plan maintains United States defense capabilities, I perceive eliminating missile sites on Russian borders as de-escalation of bellicose saber rattling. Despite irritating the Poles and Czechs, it might have placated the Russians…at least a little. It probably doesn’t faze Iran’s Ahmadinejad, who keeps insisting the Holocaust didn’t happen, and North Korea probably hasn’t got the news yet and could care less anyway.

From my perspective as a card-carrying peacenik, de-escalation is a good thing. Nuclear non-proliferation is a good thing. Diplomacy over pre-emptive and overwhelming force is a good thing. Civil discourse over vitriolic polarization is a good thing. If we could achieve a little domestic de-escalation right here in the homeland, that would be a good thing. If only…

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